Creating a culture of trust
Crear una cultura de confianza
Trust is hardest to measure and the most consequential to get right. Money is where trust shows up first — so the strongest marker here is one the conference already instruments.
The apportionment payout rate is the single cleanest trust proxy already on the books. When churches stop sending money, they have stopped trusting the center.
Apportionment payout rate
Conference-wide apportionment paid ÷ asked — the cleanest trust proxy. Watch for recovery from the 2023–24 collapse.
Church exits, closures, disaffiliations
Closures + disaffiliations since the merger. 84 disaffiliations cost ≈$1.6M/yr in recurring apportionment base. Target: trending toward zero.
Conference reserves (net assets)
Conference net assets, end of year, from the audit. Context for the reserves-vs-need question: reserves dwarf the annual apportionment gap.
Clergy attrition
Ordinary attrition (retirements + transfers) held ~20–35/yr; the 2023–25 spike is disaffiliation-driven withdrawals — clergy leaving with their churches. The supply line troughs the same year (2023).
Entrants vs. exits — net flow— exits (solid) · entrants: commissioned, ordained, received by transfer (dashed). The conference lost clergy almost every year through 2025 — a net 55 in 2023, the disaffiliation peak — but 2026 turned net positive (+18: 30 in, 12 out), the first clear recovery.
Three readings. The line is clergy holding an active Río-family appointment (a supply proxy: 289→257). The bars are the Business of the Annual Conference exit questions, separating ordinary attrition (retirements + transfers out, steady ~20–35/yr) from withdrawals — near-zero until the disaffiliation exodus drove 37 in 2023. Entrants (commissioned, ordained, received by transfer) net against exits to show the flow. Deaths are omitted: the BAC necrology can't be cleanly limited to a single year.
Clergy pipeline (certified candidates)
The pipeline held ~25–38 through 2022, then fell with disaffiliation to a low of 8 in 2025: 38 (2022) → 24 (2023) → 16 (2024) → 8 (2025) → 16 (2026). The 2026 uptick is an early sign the conference is rebuilding its clergy supply.
Certified candidates for licensed or ordained ministry (¶310) — the conference's clergy pipeline, from the Business of the Annual Conference, 2016–2026. It fell from a peak of 38 (2020) to a low of 8 (2025), then rebounded to 16 in 2026. The pipeline is a leading indicator of clergy supply — today's candidates are tomorrow's pastors — so the 2026 uptick is an early sign of recovery. Total and discontinuations read directly; “newly certified” is inferred from the certification date, so read it as indicative. 2015 is omitted (older journal format).